To validate the use of the February 2024 submission data for predicting the eventual rates and trends through 2022, data from one year earlier are used. In this case both the February and subsequent November submissions are both available. The delay-adjusted rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2021 are derived from the February 2023 submission and compared to those from the November 2023 submission. The comparisons are based on: (1) the delay-adjusted rates for 2021 and (2) the direction and statistical significance of the final Joinpoint segment. To compare the 2021 delay-adjusted rates from the November and February 2023 submissions, the ratio of these two rates is computed for each of the cancer site/sex combinations. Ideally the distribution of these ratios should be centered around 1, with the variability as small as possible.

Validation Table

The table below presents the validation results using the observed and delay-adjusted rates, and the modeled rates and trends from 2000 through 2021 using the February 2023 and November 2023 submissions for SEER 17 registries where the February 2023 submission met the 95% completeness criteria for cases diagnosed in 2021 (Seattle, Utah, New Jersey, Kentucky, Iowa, Hawaii, Louisiana).

Download the validation table (XLSX, 24 KB)

Seven SEER Registries (CT, SE, NJ, KY, IA, HI, LA ) Cancer Rates for Diagnosis Year 2021 from February and November 2023 Submissions: Validation Check, All Races

Cancer Site Sex 2021 Age-Adjusted Rates Annual Percent Change Trends (2020 Excluded)
APC (Year Range)		 Average Annual Percent Change Trends
Feb 2023 Submission Feb Delay Factor Nov 2023 Submission Nov Delay Factor Nov 2023/Feb 2023 Ratios Feb 2023 Submission Nov 2023 Submission Feb 2023 Submission Nov 2023 Submission
Observed Delay Adjusted Observed Delay Adjusted Observed Delay Adjusted 5 Year 10 Year 5 Year 10 Year
*APC and AAPC trends are significant, p<0.05.
All Sites Male 494.7 541.4 1.094 522.5 539.3 1.032 1.056 0.996 -0.5 (2000-2008)
-1.8* (2008-2014)
0.4 (2014-2021)		 -0.5 (2000-2009)
-2.4* (2009-2013)
0.2 (2013-2021)		 0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.1
Female 432.3 471.2 1.090 450.0 464.0 1.031 1.041 0.985 0.2 (2000-2018)
1.2* (2018-2021)		 0.3* (2000-2021) 1.0* 0.6* 0.3* 0.3*
Brain and ONS Male 6.7 7.5 1.105 7.3 7.6 1.035 1.087 1.018 -0.2 (2000-2018)
-2.7* (2018-2021)		 0.0 (2000-2012)
-0.8* (2012-2021)		 -2.1* -1.0* -0.8* -0.8*
Female 5.0 5.5 1.108 5.4 5.5 1.035 1.071 1.001 -0.2 (2000-2021) -0.2 (2000-2021) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Breast Female 136.7 142.6 1.043 139.6 141.5 1.013 1.021 0.992 -1.7* (2000-2005)
0.7 (2005-2017)
1.5* (2017-2021)		 -1.8* (2000-2005)
0.8* (2005-2021)		 1.5* 1.1* 0.8* 0.8*
Cervix Female 7.7 8.0 1.050 7.9 8.0 1.016 1.031 0.997 -1.8* (2000-2012)
0.8 (2012-2021)		 -1.7* (2000-2012)
0.7 (2012-2021)		 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Colon and Rectum Male 42.7 45.2 1.060 44.7 45.4 1.017 1.047 1.004 -3.1* (2000-2012)
-1.1* (2012-2021)		 -3.1* (2000-2012)
-1.0* (2012-2021)		 -1.1* -1.1* -1.0* -1.0*
Female 33.8 35.8 1.060 35.2 35.8 1.017 1.042 1.000 -2.6*(2000-2012)
-0.7 (2012-2021)		 -2.6*(2000-2012)
-0.7 (2012-2021)		 -0.7 -0.7* -0.7 -0.7*
Corpus and Uterus NOS Female 27.9 29.0 1.037 28.7 29.0 1.011 1.026 1.000 1.0* (2000-2021) 1.0* (2000-2021) 1.0* 1.0* 1.0* 1.0*
Esophagus Male 7.4 7.8 1.056 7.7 7.9 1.017 1.042 1.004 -0.6* (2000-2021) -0.6* (2000-2021) -0.6* -0.6* -0.6* -0.6*
Female 1.8 1.9 1.053 1.9 1.9 1.016 1.041 1.005 -1.0 (2000-2017)
3.3 (2017-2021)		 -1.0 (2000-2017)
3.3 (2017-2021)		 3.3 0.9 3.3 0.9
Hodgkin Lymphoma Male 2.9 3.0 1.056 3.0 3.0 1.015 1.028 0.988 2.1* (2000-2005)
-1.1* (2005-2021)		 2.1 (2000-2005)
-1.1* (2005-2021)		 -1.1* -1.1* -1.1* -1.1*
Female 2.2 2.3 1.054 2.3 2.3 1.014 1.026 0.987 -0.8* (2000-2021) -0.8* (2000-2021) -0.8* -0.8* -0.8* -0.8*
Kidney and Renal Pelvis Male 23.2 25.6 1.104 24.5 25.5 1.041 1.056 0.996 3.0* (2000-2007)
0.8* (2007-2021)		 3.0* (2000-2007)
0.8* (2007-2021)		 0.8* 0.8* 0.8* 0.8*
Female 11.8 12.9 1.101 12.4 12.9 1.040 1.056 0.997 4.0* (2000-2006)
0.7* (2006-2021)		 4.0* (2000-2006)
0.7* (2006-2021)		 0.7* 0.7* 0.7* 0.7*
Larynx Male 4.7 5.0 1.064 4.9 5.0 1.018 1.035 0.990 -2.2* (2000-2021) -2.2* (2000-2021) -2.2* -2.2* -2.2* -2.2*
Female 1.1 1.2 1.062 1.2 1.2 1.018 1.053 1.009 -1.5* (2000-2021) -1.5* (2000-2021) -1.5* -1.5* -1.5* -1.5*
Leukemia Male 17.3 21.1 1.221 19.4 21.4 1.102 1.124 1.014 0.9* (2000-2021) 0.9* (2000-2021) 0.9* 0.9* 0.9* 0.9*
Female 11.0 13.4 1.211 12.2 13.4 1.097 1.109 1.004 1.1* (2000-2021) 1.1* (2000-2021) 1.1* 1.1* 1.1* 1.1*
Liver and IBD Male 11.1 13.1 1.177 12.6 13.3 1.053 1.133 1.013 3.8* (2000-2015)
-0.7 (2015-2021)		 3.8* (2000-2015)
-0.6 (2015-2021)		 -0.7 0.8* -0.6 0.9*
Female 4.8 5.6 1.170 5.3 5.6 1.052 1.111 0.999 3.2* (2000-2021) 3.2* (2000-2021) 3.2* 3.2* 3.2* 3.2*
Lung and Bronchus Male 53.8 59.0 1.096 58.0 59.6 1.027 1.078 1.010 -1.7* (2000-2008)
-2.6* (2008-2021)		 -1.7* (2000-2008)
-2.5* (2008-2021)		 -2.6* -2.6* -2.5* -2.5*
Female 45.2 49.4 1.094 48.0 49.3 1.026 1.063 0.997 0.7* (2000-2007)
-1.1* (2007-2021)		 0.7* (2000-2007)
-1.1* (2007-2021)		 -1.1* -1.1* -1.1* -1.1*
Melanoma of the Skin Male 30.8 33.2 1.079 33.1 33.8 1.022 1.077 1.019 3.9* (2000-2007)
1.3* (2007-2021)		 3.9* (2000-2007)
1.4* (2007-2021)		 1.3* 1.3* 1.4* 1.4*
Female 21.3 23.0 1.080 22.6 23.1 1.021 1.063 1.005 2.0* (2000-2021) 2.0* (2000-2021) 2.0* 2.0* 2.0* 2.0*
Myeloma Male 8.7 10.2 1.172 9.1 9.8 1.081 1.041 0.961 -2.4 (2000-2003)
1.7* (2003-2021)		 -2.3 (2000-2003)
1.6* (2003-2021)		 1.7* 1.7* 1.6* 1.6*
Female 6.0 7.1 1.173 6.2 6.7 1.082 1.022 0.942 -1.5 (2000-2003)
1.7 (2003-2018)
4.8* (2018-2021)		 0.3 (2000-2007)
2.0* (2007-2021)		 4.0* 2.7* 2.0* 2.0*
Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma Male 23.2 24.9 1.077 24.3 24.9 1.026 1.048 0.998 1.2* (2000-2007)
-0.5* (2007-2021)		 1.1* (2000-2007)
-0.5* (2007-2021)		 -0.5* -0.5* -0.5* -0.5*
Female 15.9 17.2 1.081 16.6 17.1 1.027 1.048 0.995 0.5* (2000-2008)
-0.9* (2008-2014)
0.1 (2014-2021)		 0.5* (2000-2008)
-0.8* (2008-2014)
0.1 (2014-2021)		 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
Oral Cavity and Pharynx Male 18.4 19.7 1.072 19.6 20.0 1.024 1.063 1.016 -0.3 (2000-2005)
1.3 (2005-2021)		 -0.3 (2000-2005)
1.3* (2005-2021)		 1.3* 1.3* 1.3* 1.3*
Female 6.5 7.0 1.070 7.0 7.1 1.024 1.065 1.019 1.0* (2000-2021) 1.0* (2000-2021) 1.0* 1.0* 1.0* 1.0*
Ovary Female 9.2 10.0 1.085 9.6 9.9 1.029 1.042 0.988 -2.0* (2000-2021) -2.0* (2000-2021) -2.0* -2.0* -2.0* -2.0*
Pancreas Male 14.9 16.7 1.119 16.2 16.6 1.025 1.086 0.995 1.1* (2000-2021) 1.1* (2000-2021) 1.1* 1.1* 1.1* 1.1*
Female 11.4 12.7 1.120 12.6 12.9 1.026 1.105 1.011 1.1* (2000-2021) 1.2* (2000-2021) 1.1* 1.1* 1.2* 1.2*
Prostate Male 129.6 143.5 1.108 134.2 139.6 1.041 1.036 0.973 -1.9* (2000-2010)
-7.4* (2010-2014)
3.9* (2014-2021)		 -1.9 (2000-2010)
-7.3* (2010-2014)
3.6* (2014-2021)		 3.9* 1.3* 3.6* 1.1
Stomach Male 8.6 9.2 1.074 8.9 9.1 1.021 1.037 0.986 -1.3* (2000-2021) -1.3* (2000-2021) -1.3* -1.3* -1.3* -1.3*
Female 5.5 5.9 1.074 5.7 5.9 1.021 1.040 0.989 -0.6* (2000-2018)
7.1* (2018-2021)		 -0.6* (2000-2018)
6.7* (2018-2021)		 5.1* 1.9* 4.9* 1.8*
Testis Male 5.7 6.0 1.052 5.9 6.0 1.017 1.043 1.007 0.3 (2000-2021) 0.3 (2000-2021) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Thyroid Male 7.1 7.5 1.050 7.4 7.5 1.018 1.038 1.006 6.2* (2000-2012)
-1.6* (2012-2021)		 6.2* (2000-2012)
-1.5* (2012-2021)		 -1.6* -1.6* -1.5* -1.5*
Female 20.9 22.0 1.050 21.5 21.9 1.018 1.027 0.995 7.3* (2000-2009)
1.5* (2009-2015)
-2.2* (2015-2021)		 7.3* (2000-2009)
1.5* (2009-2015)
-2.3* (2015-2021)		 -2.2* -1.0* -2.3* -1.0*
Urinary Bladder Male 32.5 35.2 1.084 33.9 34.9 1.027 1.045 0.990 0.7 (2000-2005)
-1.0* (2005-2021)		 1.1 (2000-2004)
-1.0* (2004-2021)		 -1.0* -1.0* -1.0* -1.0*
Female 7.8 8.5 1.089 8.1 8.3 1.028 1.043 0.985 -0.9* (2000-2021) -0.9* (2000-2021) -0.9* -0.9* -0.9* -0.9*

Validation Summary

Two validation metrics are used to summarize the results.

The first metric is the number of series where the statistical significance of the final Joinpoint segment changed (or the direction of the final segment changed from trending significantly upward to significantly downward or vice-versa), when comparing the February and November 2023 submissions. Of the 42 series (18 cancer sites by sex, and 6 single sex cancer sites) only one change of this type was observed (and the change was quite modest). In comparison, for the full set of SEER 17 registries, there were 9 instances of this type.

The second metric is a comparison of the 2021 delay-adjusted rates from the November and February 2023 submissions. The ratio of these two delay-adjusted rates is computed for each of the cancer site/sex combinations. Ideally the distribution of these ratios should be centered around 1, with the variability as small as possible. For the full set of 17 registries the median of these ratios is 1.05, indicating that the 2021 rates based on the November 2023 submission are, on average, 5% larger than those based on the February 2023 submission. For those SEER 17 registries where the February submission meets the 95% completeness criteria, the median of these ratios is 1.00.

Based on these results using the February 2023 and November 2023 submissions for 2000-2021, a decision was made to utilize registries where the February 2024 submission met the 95% completeness criteria to produce preliminary rates and trends for cases diagnosed in 2000-2022. These registries include Connecticut, Greater Bay (San Francisco and San Jose), Seattle, Utah, New Jersey, Kentucky, Iowa, Hawaii, and Louisiana. These registries represent approximately 15% of the U.S. population, and 30% of the population of the Official Release of SEER 22 registries. This completeness criteria will be evaluated in future years, and may change.